Is O'Neill's points average enough to win title?

ByAndy Campbell

BBC Scotland

Nine games to go, four teams in the mix and one title to fight for.

The Scottish Premiership has rarely been so exciting.

Since the league was rebranded in 2013, for the champions - Celtic on 11 occasions and Rangers once - the points difference between first and second has been in double figures seven times and other times just below 10 at nine or eight.

As things stand, Heart of Midlothian, who have not finished higher than third since 2006, lead the pack by five points, with defending champions Celtic the leaders' nearest challengers.

Last season's runners-up, Rangers, are still in contention, a point off Celtic, and Motherwell sit fourth, four points behind Rangers, as they seek to finish as high or higher than their third-placed finish in 2014.

But will the deciding factor be who is in the dugout come trophy day?

Only two of the top four have the same team boss as they did before the season started.

Experienced campaigner Derek McInnes joined Hearts shortly after last season and is on the cusp of the first league title of his managerial career, while Jens Berthel Askou has slowly but surely made Motherwell contenders.

Under McInnes, Hearts have a 2.17 points per league game average. Askou's ratio is 1.82 - down slightly after Saturday's loss at Dundee.

In Glasgow, it has been an entirely different story. At Celtic, Brendan Rodgers started the campaign in the dugout, seeking the club's fifth successive title. After defeat by Hearts in October, which was Celtic's second straight league loss, Rodgers resigned.

In stepped former manager Martin O'Neill for an interim spell, during which Celtic won all five of their league games. Wilfried Nancy was appointed but lasted only eight games, winning only two and losing six. Those two victories were in the Premiership.

Back came O'Neill and he has restored the consistency of both his first spell as boss (2000-05) and his shorter interim stint earlier this season.

Celtic have dropped points since O'Neill's latest appointment, but only on three occasions and only one of those has been a defeat.

Overall, he boasts the highest points per game average of the top four team bosses in the Premiership at 2.5.

Danny Rohl became Rangers' second permanent head coach of the season in October. At that stage, Rangers had nine points from eight games, seven of which were under predecessor Russell Martin and the other under the watch of caretaker coach Stevie Smith.

The German has significantly improved Rangers' points per Premiership game average, with his figure sitting at 2.29. The Ibrox side's tendency to draw games this season may ultimately prove to be their undoing, but half of their 12 draws in the league came before Rohl's arrival.

Had Rohl been appointed in June, his current points average would have Rangers better off than leaders Hearts after 29 games.

If the current figures hold up to and including the final round of league fixtures this term, Hearts would win the title by two points, with Celtic second.

Rangers would remain third and Motherwell fourth. This table illustrates a predicted top four, with points rounded up or down to the nearest whole number, taking the same approach with goal difference (only including league games involving McInnes, O'Neill, Rohl and Askou).

For context, last season's champions, Celtic, finished on 92 points, runners-up Rangers had 75 and Hibernian were third on 58, five points above both Dundee United and Aberdeen. Hearts and Motherwell were both bottom-six teams on 52 and 49 points, respectively.

The last time a team won the Premiership with a total of around 83 points was in season 2017-18. Celtic finished on 82 points, nine ahead of Rangers.

The top flight in Scotland has not been won by a margin of less than four points since 2011, when Rangers won it by a single point.

When Motherwell finished second in 2014, they had 70 points and are projected to more or less match that this term. It is likely that this season's runners-up will be up nearer the 80 mark.

Of course, and at the risk of sounding like a financial advisor, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Dropping points in one game, never mind two, can seriously reduce the ratio.

Askou went from 1.89 to 1.82 with that loss at Dens Park. Rohl's points average was 2.42 before Rangers' recent league draws with Livingston and Celtic.

The Scottish Cup may also be a factor. Celtic are the only one of the top four still in the competition and will have at least one more tie to play in addition to their nine league games.

It is not that much of an increase in terms of player load, but while Celtic are playing their semi-final with St Mirren, all three other top-four teams will be in the middle of a two-week break.

Fourteen league games - the amount O'Neill has overseen at Celtic this season - is a fairly small sample size, certainly in comparison to McInnes and Askou.

However, O'Neill's points average across his five league campaigns at Celtic from 2000-05 was 2.56.

His lowest total from a season was in 2004-05, when Celtic finished second on 92 points. If anything, these figures endorse the veteran manager's credentials even more.

Discussion on BBC Radio Scotland's Sportsound in the wake of Celtic's Scottish Cup quarter-final win on penalties at Rangers on Sunday turned to the Premiership title race.

"Five points is a big enough gap," Motherwell's former Hearts and Rangers midfielder, Andy Halliday, said.

"At this minute in time, could you really see Celtic or Rangers getting more points than Hearts at the end of the season?

"I refuse to believe that, if Celtic continue to play the way they are playing, they can score more points than Hearts. I just can't see it at all.

"They have to hit form at some point and they might. Martin O'Neill's a fantastic manager. He might be the one that makes the difference rather than the ones on the pitch."

Former Celtic goalkeeper Pat Bonner added: "Celtic are not losing games. While they're not playing well, they're not losing games.

"They've still got that winning mentality going. [It's] something that they'll keep being reminded of by Martin. Somehow, he's got something about him that's able to get results."